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the psychology of successful trading

Château #Musar: #SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS

  • Very strong brand story with significant historical underpinning since foundation in 1930s
  • Good level of brand equity especially among high-involvement consumers
  • Long history of organic production
  • Effective cellar door operation which attracts high-spending customers
  • Great ageing potential 
  • Production can be described as “Bordeaux blend with a twist” which is a strong combination of an established and well-known pattern but with some extra interest
  • No other serious players in Lebanon currently
  • Good and reliable sales into France because of historical relationship between the countries
  • Extremely high quality consistent product
  • Good local supplies of skilled and unskilled labour

WEAKNESSES

  • Distance of winery from vineyards causes risk of oxidation damage and heat stress to grapes in transit to winery
  • Whites are not close in importance to the flagship red blends and there is little serious portfolio diversification
  • Cellar door sales are somewhat impeded by the distance of Lebanon from western Europe and the US
  • Online operation exists but does not ship huge volumes for logistical reasons
  • Winery uses large volumes of water which is not easily sourced

OPPORTUNITIES

  • Can reach new consumers who are interested in exploring wines from novel locations — this is a major segment of the high-involvement market
  • China has an increasing population in the mid-wealth range but there is as yet little penetration of premium wine from regions beyond those that are extremely famous such as Bordeaux or Burgundy
  • Explore movement of product into China via partnerships with apps which are very important in that market
  • Find ways of improving the logistical bottlenecks to move more product via online channels

THREATS

  • Continued political instability in Lebanon
  • Peg of local currency to USD has broken meaning import costs will increase dramatically 
  • Could also imply a risk of increased taxation
  • Intensification of local regional conflict could impede winery and vineyard operations including labour supply and transport of product
  • Local competition does exist and could gain importance, diluting the position of Musar as the sole well-known producer in Lebanon; moreover if such competitors move product downmarket, this could dilute the soft brand equity of Lebanon
  • Poor internet bandwidth and consistency of power supply

By Tim Short

I am a former investment banking and securitisation specialist, having spent nearly a decade on the trading floor of several international investment banks. Throughout my career, I worked closely with syndicate/traders in order to establish the types of paper which would trade well and gained significant and broad experience in financial markets.
Many people have trading experience similar to the above. What marks me out is what I did next. I decided to pursue my interest in philosophy at Doctoral level, specialising in the psychology of how we predict and explain the behaviour of others, and in particular, the errors or biases we are prone to in that process. I have used my experience to write The Psychology of Successful Trading. In this book, I combine the above experience and knowledge to show how biases can lead to inaccurate predictions of the behaviour of other market participants, and how remedying those biases can lead to better predictions and major profits. Learn more on the About Me page.

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