Asking Mark Field MP To #StopBrexit

From: Tim Short
Sent: 17 November 2018 10:45
To: FIELD, Mark
Subject: Brexit Is Economically Catastrophic

To The Rt Hon Mark Field MP

Dear Mr Field,

I would like to know as a constituent of yours and an investment banker what actions you are taking to prevent the severe adverse economic consequences of Brexit, which were extremely clear at the time of the referendum, and yet are becoming more apparent daily.

As you will be aware, we cannot replace the many FTAs we currently enjoy in virtue of our EU membership quickly or easily. It is a chimera to believe that trade with the Commonwealth can replace trade with the EU since it is an empirical law that trade volumes anti-correlate with distance.

There are three components of GDP growth, of which an increased workforce — meaning migration — is one. Increasing the other two — productivity and capital intensity — is difficult. We therefore require greatly increased levels of skilled migration, especially in the light of likely future demographic developments. Migration is harmed by Brexit since it creates a strong and accurate perception abroad of UK hostility to migration.

There is as you will know a composite sector model of the UK economy on the day before the referendum composed of the appropriate weightings of sectors in other OECD economies. Naturally, those other OECD economies have been exposed to the same global economic environment as has the UK economy. Nevertheless, UK GDP is currently underperforming the composite model by £500m per week.

I have never understood what it was that the Brexit voters wanted, but whatever it is, we simply cannot afford it.

I look forward to hearing what actions you intend to take to stop Brexit.

Yours faithfully,

Tim Short

By Tim Short

I am a former investment banking and securitisation specialist, having spent nearly a decade on the trading floor of several international investment banks. Throughout my career, I worked closely with syndicate/traders in order to establish the types of paper which would trade well and gained significant and broad experience in financial markets.
Many people have trading experience similar to the above. What marks me out is what I did next. I decided to pursue my interest in philosophy at Doctoral level, specialising in the psychology of how we predict and explain the behaviour of others, and in particular, the errors or biases we are prone to in that process. I have used my experience to write The Psychology of Successful Trading. In this book, I combine the above experience and knowledge to show how biases can lead to inaccurate predictions of the behaviour of other market participants, and how remedying those biases can lead to better predictions and major profits. Learn more on the About Me page.

One reply on “Asking Mark Field MP To #StopBrexit”

I received the reply below from Mark Field. It is clearly infinitely better argued that the scattered selection of non-sequiturs received by colleagues unfortunate enough to live in Vauxhall. I am considering my reply.


Mark Field
Re: Brexit Is Economically Catastrophic (Case Ref: ZA20681)
To: Tim Short

Dear Mr Short,

Thank you for your recent e-mail.

As you may know, I myself campaigned passionately for the Remain side during the referendum but have consistently said ever since that I will support Government negotiations towards an orderly break from the EU, and, despite all that has happened in recent weeks, I maintain this position.

The reality is that the draft agreement represents a positive first step out of the EU. It may not be perfect, though nothing was ever likely to satisfy all sides of this impassioned debate. What it is, however, is a pragmatic and, above all, workable arrangement with the EU 27 from which to make meaningful progress on our future trading relationship. What has also become clear since the agreement’s announcement is that there is no realistic, constructive alternative vision for Brexit among those MPs who are so critical of the Prime Minister.

The City of London recently said that a no-deal Brexit is in nobody’s interest and that a degree of certainty about our future relationship with the EU must be restored as quickly as possible, lest we face the potentially disastrous consequences of a cliff-edge exit. Accordingly, the City has welcomed the draft agreement as it provides businesses with some much-needed clarity on the nature of our future relationship with the EU and assures the sector of a transition period crucial to preparing for the manifold complexities presented by our departure.

As the Foreign Office Minister for Asia and the Pacific, one of the salutary lessons I have learnt from that part of the world when speaking about the impact of Brexit on trade is how relaxed most of my counterparts are.

Most of these nations have traded, exchanged students and culturally co-operated with the UK for many decades or even centuries. They recognise that there may well be a short period of uncertainty, but they remain confident that it will be ‘business as usual’ in the decades ahead and are looking forward to engaging with the UK as truly global-looking nation who can take more of an active role in trade and other partnerships in the region than we do presently. Indeed I would refer you again to my article in which I discuss the UK’s opportunity to embrace relations with Asia (in particular ASEAN), as well as a speech I made recently in Jakarta:

In regard to migration, a large number of Britons demand that the flow of workers from abroad be stemmed upon Brexit. This is not what many businesses or public sector employers want, and I am sympathetic to their concerns having long felt that too many of our fellow Britons lack the skills required to command a living wage in what is now a globalised economy.

The ending of Freedom of Movement will force us to tackle this indigenous skills shortage head-on, and address what I feel was one of the reasons the referendum returned the decision to leave (that is, the sense that modern capitalism is now skewed against the interests of many living outside London and the South East more broadly).

Such an indigenous skills revolution would require a commitment to improve vocational and technical education. All too many UK school leavers and graduates are underemployed at a time where we struggle to fill vacancies for carers, computer coders and town planners. Post-Brexit, we should look to develop and nurture our home-grown talent before seeking low-cost alternatives from the continent, whilst also sourcing the very best talent from across the globe under the terms of a new immigration policy that is equally as open talent from the East as it is Europe.

Many thanks again for taking the time to contact me on this most important issue.

Kind regards,

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