From: Tim Short
Sent: 17 November 2018 10:45
To: FIELD, Mark
Subject: Brexit Is Economically Catastrophic
To The Rt Hon Mark Field MP
Dear Mr Field,
I would like to know as a constituent of yours and an investment banker what actions you are taking to prevent the severe adverse economic consequences of Brexit, which were extremely clear at the time of the referendum, and yet are becoming more apparent daily.
As you will be aware, we cannot replace the many FTAs we currently enjoy in virtue of our EU membership quickly or easily. It is a chimera to believe that trade with the Commonwealth can replace trade with the EU since it is an empirical law that trade volumes anti-correlate with distance.
There are three components of GDP growth, of which an increased workforce — meaning migration — is one. Increasing the other two — productivity and capital intensity — is difficult. We therefore require greatly increased levels of skilled migration, especially in the light of likely future demographic developments. Migration is harmed by Brexit since it creates a strong and accurate perception abroad of UK hostility to migration.
There is as you will know a composite sector model of the UK economy on the day before the referendum composed of the appropriate weightings of sectors in other OECD economies. Naturally, those other OECD economies have been exposed to the same global economic environment as has the UK economy. Nevertheless, UK GDP is currently underperforming the composite model by £500m per week.
I have never understood what it was that the Brexit voters wanted, but whatever it is, we simply cannot afford it.
I look forward to hearing what actions you intend to take to stop Brexit.