Negativity Bias And Financial Markets

Negativity Bias is one of the powerful and ineradicable aspects of human psychology, which has important effects on the performance of stock market investors

Negativity Bias is perhaps the most expensive and dangerous item in our psychological repertoire insofar as it impacts on our performance in financial markets.  In this post, I will outline the bias and then discuss how its effects play out in markets.

Negativity Bias is reflected in the finding that negative events affect us much more strongly than positive ones.  I should immediately distinguish this effect from the bias I was discussing in my previous post (https://timlshort.com/2017/11/05/attentional-bias-and-financial-markets/)  There, I discussed the subset of Attentional Biases that operate in people who are depressed or anxious, such that they pay more attention to mood congruent information.  Negativity Bias differs from that in that it affects everyone, irrespective of mood and psychiatric diagnosis.  Some forms of Attentional Bias do that as well, but in the previous post I considered only mood-related variants thereof.

The bias can be seen as a mis-calibration, like many of our cognitive biases.  There is a “right-size” for the amount of impact that an event should have on us which is related to the “intensity” of that event.  Obviously, intensity is rather a slippery concept here, but we can give some meaning to it with illustrations.  Two negative events of different intensities would be stubbing one’s toe and breaking an arm.  Two positive events with differing intensities would be receiving a birthday card or falling in love.

So without Negativity Bias — and with what we might regard as a purely rational response to events — there would be a link between the intensity of an event and its impact upon us.  There would not be a link between whether the event  was positive or negative and the size of the impact of the event on us.  This does not mean that it is strange that we react negatively to negative events and positively to positive events (in fact, it would be very strange were this not so!).  What it means is that it is odd that we react more strongly to negative events than we do to positive events of the same intensity.

This was measured by experimental social psychologists in financial terms using sums of money.  It was found that the mis-calibration is very strong: the factor is about 2.5.  In other words, we react 2.5x as strongly to losing $10 as we do to gaining $10.  In other other words, losing something is much, much worse than gaining the same amount.

The Negativity Bias then will have huge impacts on our risk aversion, and that, it is well known, is a key driver of performance in financial markets.  Many people perform extremely badly as a result of excess risk aversion.  In the current environment, it is unwise to be holding substantial amounts of cash.  People should have some emergency funds of course.  But if CPI is running at 3% and interest rates paid by the banks are more like 1%, then anyone holding cash in the bank is basically prepared to pay 2% a year in order to avoid any risk, as they see it.

As I see it, paying to avoid risk like this is just concretising the risk.  You don’t gain: you just get the loss in a form you can pretend doesn’t exist.  It would be much better — and in fact less risky understood correctly — to invest in something.  There is an enormous spectrum of assets and geographies out there from equities in the US, Japan, Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets to bonds issues by governments, investment grade corporates and junk corporates.  There are thousands of ETFs available offering the widest imaginable range of exposures.  Overcome your Negativity Bias and pick one.

I discuss in much more detail the important effects in financial markets of Cognitive Biases like Negativity Bias in my new book:

https://www.routledge.com/The-Psychology-of-Successful-Trading-Behavioral-Strategies-for-Profitability/Short/p/book/9781138096288

If you want to discuss these and other concepts mentioned in the book, or for more information about the book, you can Send Mail

 

 

 

Author: Tim Short

I went to Imperial College in 1988 for a BSc(hons) in Physics. I then went back to my hometown, Bristol, for a PhD in Particle Physics. This was written in 1992 on the ZEUS experiment which was located at the HERA accelerator in Hamburg (http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1354624/). I spent the next four years as a post-doc in Hamburg. I learned German and developed a fondness for the language and people. I spent a couple of years doing technical sales for a US computer company in Ireland. In 1997, I returned to London to become an investment banker, joining the legendary Principal Finance Group at Nomura. After a spell at Paribas, I moved to Credit Suisse First Boston. I specialized in securitization, leading over €9bn of transactions. My interest in philosophy began in 2006, when I read David Chalmers's "The Conscious Mind." My reaction, apart from fascination, was "he has to be wrong, but I can't see why"! I then became an undergraduate in Philosophy at UCL in 2007. In 2010, I was admitted to graduate school, also at UCL. I wrote my Master's on the topic of "Nietzsche on Memory" (http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1421265/). Also during this time, I published a popular article on Sherlock Holmes (http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1430371/2/194-1429-1-PB.pdf). I then began work on the Simulation Theory account of Theory of Mind. This led to my second PhD on philosophical aspects of that topic; this was awarded by UCL in March 2016 (http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1475972/ -- currently embargoed for copyright reasons). The psychological version of this work formed my book "Simulation Theory". My second book, "The Psychology Of Successful Trading: Behavioural Strategies For Profitability" is in production at Taylor and Francis and will be published in December 2017. It will discuss how cognitive biases affect investment decisions and how knowing this can make us better traders by understanding ourselves and other market participants more fully. I am currently drafting my third book, wherein I will return to more purely academic philosophical psychology, on "Theory of Mind in Abnormal Psychology." Education: I have five degrees, two in physics and three in philosophy. Areas of Research / Professional Expertise: Particle physics, Monte Carlo simulation, Nietzsche (especially psychological topics), phenomenology, Theory of Mind, Simulation Theory Personal Interests: I am a bit of an opera fanatic and I often attend wine tastings. I follow current affairs, especially in their economic aspect. I started as a beginner at the London Piano Institute in August 2015 and passed Grade Two in November 2017!

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