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Bitcoin Has No Future

Bad Arguments for the Permanence of Bitcoin

I will argue that Bitcoin has no future. I will do that by rebutting various elements of a rather poor article arguing that Bitcoin will be around forever. It appeared here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/15/jp-morgan-ceo-wrong-bitcoin-jamie-dimon

The random banker bashing in the headline might give you an initial suspicion about who is likely to be right here.

The first rhetorical question the article asks is “Would Jamie Dimon really sack traders who netted a 1,000% return in less than two years? The bank’s shareholders wouldn’t approve”

The answer to this is definitely yes.  Return alone is an inadequate assessment of trader performance.  We must look at risk-adjusted return. A guaranteed 10% return is better than anything lower than a 50% chance of 20%.  If the trader made his 1000% by betting on a single horse, he took an enormous risk to make his 1000%. The shareholders would certainly approve of Dimon sacking such a trader and in fact would demand it.

Bitcoin Has No Future: Standard “Fake News” Accusation

Next is a ‘fake news’ type criticism aiming to show that Dimon is biased.  He writes “Although JP Morgan was by no means the most leveraged of the banks, it still took bailout money, and, as its CEO, Dimon and bitcoin will inevitably be philosophically opposed.” 

These claims don’t stack up.  Firstly, JP received a bail out post-crisis (fine).  Secondly, Bitcoin is a response to this crisis. I doubt it, but let’s accept this.  Thirdly, JP oppose all crisis responses.  Conclusion: JP opposes Bitcoin forever.  Premise Three is obviously false. It has no defences.

The next section of the article accuses Dimon of not understanding Bitcoin because he says it is a fraud.  The author then admits that the main uses of Bitcoin are for fraudulent and criminal purposes but it is not itself a fraud.  This is parallel to those arguments against gun control which say that guns don’t kill people, people do. This is another obviously stupid argument.

The Weakest Point of the Argument

I will close by criticising a remarkable paragraph which packs in a lot of errors and bad arguments.

“Dimon declares that we will use the technology – blockchain technology – but that bitcoin will be shut down. That’s like saying we will use football pitches, but football players will be banned. One comes with the other. In any case, you can’t just shut bitcoin down. It’s a decentralised, distributed network. That’s the whole point of its design. There is no central point of failure.”

Frisby
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Objections to the Football Analogy

This is very strange.  Take the football analogy first.  There are two major problems with it.  As a parallel, it may or may not work.  Assume it works.  Let’s be generous. 

There are alternative uses for football pitches.  Other sports exists. They became holding centres post-Katrina.  Other uses are possible.  We could land helicopters on them.  So even if Bitcoin ls like playing football and the blockchain is like a football pitch, we can do other things with football pitches and we could do other things with the blockchain.  Strikingly in fact, this is where much of the excitement exists.  There are many potential extremely useful applications of a distributed ledger technology such as property registers and shareholder transaction records.  These would be interesting because they would be highly transparent and resistant to corruption and bureaucratic sloth.

Bitcoin Has No Future: You Can Have a Blockchain Without Bitcoin

The claim that you can’t have a blockchain without bitcoin is false. You do need to pay the miners. But you could pay them dollars. Moreover, that argument needs the blockchain to be useful. That is possible but the jury is still out. So that argument does not work against the claim that Bitcoin has no future.

The second argument in here is equally poor.  It claims Bitcoin is impossible to shut down because it is decentralised.  What this means is that you cannot shut down the servers behind Bitcoin because they are decentralised.  But that isn’t what Dimon says.  He says that “There will be no currency that gets around government controls.” What if governments made Bitcoin possession and use illegal and banned its use in any transactions?  They could do that and then what Dimon has pointed out is true. But no-one has to go around shutting down distributed servers.

Conclusions

I conclude that the author has done nothing to show that Dimon is wrong. So we can be clear that Bitcoin has no future.

See also:

The #Bitcoin Bubble Is Caused By The Halo Effect

The Forthcoming #Bitcoin Crash Will Kill The #Trump Demographic

The #Anecdotal Fallacy And The #Bitcoin Bubble

The Psychology of Successful Trading: see clip below of me explaining my new book!

By Tim Short

I am a former investment banking and securitisation specialist, having spent nearly a decade on the trading floor of several international investment banks. Throughout my career, I worked closely with syndicate/traders in order to establish the types of paper which would trade well and gained significant and broad experience in financial markets.
Many people have trading experience similar to the above. What marks me out is what I did next. I decided to pursue my interest in philosophy at Doctoral level, specialising in the psychology of how we predict and explain the behaviour of others, and in particular, the errors or biases we are prone to in that process. I have used my experience to write The Psychology of Successful Trading. In this book, I combine the above experience and knowledge to show how biases can lead to inaccurate predictions of the behaviour of other market participants, and how remedying those biases can lead to better predictions and major profits. Learn more on the About Me page.

11 replies on “Bitcoin Has No Future”

Jamie Dimon and the stuffed suits in Beijing are perfect examples of the privileged, rude, insensitive, unwilling to learn and unwilling to adapt culture that is thankfully dying out around the globe. For the future of Bitcoin, you can look to Japan, where the currency is accepted and protected by domestic legislation. In Japan now exists the framework for fintech to thrive, whereas it has effectively been snuffed out in China.
Though the old men in suits continue to tremble and bawl on TV, Bitcoin does not in fact pretend to be a currency. It cannot replace a fiat currency because banks can’t create it at will for no cost. Bitcoin can only be created through an immense amount of computational work. As Bitcoin cannot be manipulated by banks, it has no value to them.
As for being used for fraudulent and criminal purposes, well, so can fiat money. You need look no further than the JP Morgan’s long list of financial crimes to ascertain that.
All currencies can get around government financial controls. It’s laughable to think that money laundering doesn’t go on (99% of it facilitated by banks exactly like Jamie Dimon’s).

You don’t supply any evidence for any of these claims.

I am not sure what parallels exist between the CEO of an investment bank and senior politicians in China and why you think all of these people are rude etc.

State the domestic legislation in Japan. I am interested to learn about this.

Fintech is not Bitcoin so I do not see what your point is there.

Bitcoin clearly pretends to be a currency, because it aims to be a store of value and a means of exchange.

Money laundering is increasingly difficult and will become more so as cash is eliminated.

I think threatening to fire employees and disparaging your daughter live on TV is pretty rude, but hey, we all have different moral standards. Likewise for the old men in Beijing suddenly moving to bankrupt an entire industry sector. These are real people with real investments of talent, time, and money.

[…] This means “clearing.” When there are large volumes of trading — and there is well over £2tn (yes, trillion) of daily foreign exchange trading done in London — there are lots of trades that must be cleared.  This means basically moving cash from the bank that bought something to the  bank that sold it and changing the documentation accordingly.  (Incidentally, this sort of thing is why the blockchain is so interesting.  That however, is not a reason to buy Bitcoin: https://timlshort.com/2017/09/16/bad-arguments-for-the-permanence-of-bitcoin/) […]

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